Right now, we are in the middle of Gay Lent: that time between nominations and the awarding of the Oscar statues on March 7.
I take this cultural holiday seriously. For Gay Lent 2008, I gave up Pepperidge Farms Sausalito Cookies so that Marion Cotillard could win for the subtitled Edith Piaf biopic, La Vie En Rose.
Last year, I gave up designer soaps so a favorite actress could win for playing a pedophilic ex-employee of Nazi death camps. You’re welcome, Kate Winslet.
This year, most of the winners seem foregone, so I’ve decided to try an unexpected category. I’m abstaining from beer, and you’ll find out why later in this column.
Also, there’s a change. Last year, Dark Knight didn’t get any love in the Best Picture category and everyone got their bat-suits in a twist. So the Academy has doubled the Best Picture nominations from five to 10 in hopes that the telecast will pull in more television viewers.
It’s a cynical move that’ll probably work.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nine was boring, so Penelope Cruz won’t repeat. Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick will split votes for Up in the Air. Maggie Gyllenhaal was quietly amazing in Crazy Heart. However, Mo’Nique was consummate in her very difficult role in Precious. She’s won every award so far.
Who Should Win: Mo’Nique
Who Will Win: Mo’Nique
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon was great in Invictus, but he won’t score. Woody Harrelson gave a beautiful performance in the dinky film, The Messenger. Christopher Plummer was delightful as Tolstoy in The Last Station, another small film. Stanley Tucci’s creepy neighbor is the only consistently good thing in The Lovely Bones. I’ve been rooting for the frontrunner since I saw his performance last summer.
Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds
Who Will Win: Mr. Waltz
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock is great in The Blind Side; I just wish it hadn’t been so saccharine and unchallenging. I love you Carey Mulligan for your sensitive performance in An Education, and congratulations on your well-deserved first nomination. Gabourey Sidibe in Precious and Helen Mirren in The Last Station will be crushed by the Bullock-osaurus. And then there’s poor Meryl Streep—I adore her, she’s brilliant, but I swear every time she passes wind, they hand her another nomination.
Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Who Will Win: Sandra Bullock
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges has already won the Golden Globe and SAG awards for ably playing a country music has-been in Crazy Heart. But I’m rooting for the excellent Colin Firth in A Single Man. Firth has no chance of winning for his portrayal of a lonely gay college professor, though, especially after the Academy gave the Oscar to Sean Penn for Milk last year. They won’t go gay two years in a row. George Clooney has done more challenging stuff than Up in the Air. Nelson Mandela is a role Morgan Freeman was meant to play, but Invictus was too much rugby and not enough Mandela. Jeremy Renner is wonderful in my favorite film of the year, The Hurt Locker, but this first-time nominee won’t win in a year full of heavy hitters.
Who Should Win: Colin Firth
Who Will Win: Jeff Bridges
BEST DIRECTOR
I hope that The Hurt Locker director Kathryn Bigelow becomes the first female director to win an Oscar. But she’s up against her ex-husband, James Cameron, and his game-changing megahit, Avatar. (Shouldn’t the billions he’ll make be enough reward for James?) Lee Daniels: I love Precious, but this year you’re competing against 10-foot-tall blue aliens. Quentin Tarantino should have held back and used fewer goofy tricks in the entertaining Inglorious Basterds. Jason Reitman’s directing in Up in the Air is just a little too pedestrian.
Who Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Who Will Win: James Cameron
BEST FILM
The list of 10 films includes: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up and Up in the Air.
What Should Win: I’d be okay with The Hurt Locker or Avatar.
What Will Win: Avatar—but not for the story. It’s those stunning visuals and technical advances that make it cinematic history.
