It’s our annual Oscar column – and it’s a doozy! In the comments, you can submit you predictions. We’ll draw a prizewinner from the correct or most correct. You will win SOMETHING!
The 88th Oscar season is all about diversity…or lack thereof. This year, scads of people are viably upset that there was not a single nomination of a minority in actor or director categories.
Is Hollywood the new Great White Way?
Leading the charge are black actors and directors, like Will Smith, Jada Pinkett Smith, and Spike Lee. Some have called for Chris Rock to quit presenter in protest; he responded by saying people in moviemaking just have to accept that it’s an old, white business. No one was happy to hear that! Hispanic professionals, gay actors like Sir Ian McKellen (who was snubbed for the excellent Mr. Holmes), and especially woman directors have a right to bitch, too.
So, let’s look at the big brush-offs.
Straight Outa Compton was mostly shut out (though it could be for it’s long, bombastic tone). Creed ignored both Michael B. Jordan and director Ryan Coogler. (I think they should’ve been nominated years ago for Fruitvale Station; this time they were trapped by the Rocky cliché.) Will Smith suffered under the mediocre Concussion, and Idris Elba was shunned – despite his SAG Award – for Beasts of No Nation.
Carol got acting nominations, but its gay director, Todd Haynes, was left out. It also likely deserved to be considered among the other eight Best Pictures; something in the math, I’m sure, failed it.
The really very good Steve Jobs mysteriously bombed at the box office, which might explain why a great film missed Best Picture and Best Director for Danny Boyle.
Besides Sir Ian, my big sadness was that Jason Segel didn’t get nominated for playing the brilliant, suicidal author David Foster Wallace in The End of the Tour.
So, what does Hollywood decide to do to fix its problem? It decides to purge its Oscar voters of all the people who haven’t done anything in three decades – mostly old, white men. Suddenly, others (like this year’s Best Actress nominee Charlotte Rampling) are raging that Hollywood is being ageist. You can’t win!
Maybe this Gay Lent, we all should pray that everyone just gets along!
Best Actor: Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), and Matt Damon (The Martian) are in good but not great films. (And, in fact, a minority actor or woman could’ve ably played Damon’s role.) Fassbender was wonderful in the amazing box-office bomb Steve Jobs, but nothing can stop one man from getting his goal…
Who Should Win: Since they didn’t nominate McKellen or Segel, sure, give it to Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant).
Who Will Win: Leo’s been nominated for acting four times before; this is finally his year.
Best Actress: This is a good race, with good choices all around. Jennifer Lawrence is the only consistently entertaining thing in Joy. Saoirse Ronan charmed in romantic Brooklyn. Charlotte Rampling – politically incorrect rants aside – was brilliant in the small drama 45 Years (that almost no one saw; it’s been playing at the Burns Court Cinema in Tampa, and it opens at Enzian Feb. 26). Cate Blanchett mesmerized in Carol.
Who Should Win: I said it when the film came out in October; Brie Larson’s portrayal in Room is an emotional tour de force.
Who Will Win: And she’s been winning most everything: Larson.
Best Supporting Actor: The early frontrunner was Mark Rylance from Bridge of Spies, but he, Christian Bale (The Big Short), Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), and Tom Hardy (The Revenant) have also lost steam next to the nostalgia that is Sylvester Stallone in Creed.
Who Should Win: Honestly, Mark Rylance – a Broadway and British stage actor – did an amazing job as the intriguing Russian spy.
Who Will Win: Oftentimes, Oscars go the drippy route, so expect Stallone to win in his Burgess Meredith Rocky redux.
Best Supporting Actress: This is another strong category; unfortunately it has a couple ringers. Alicia Vikander belongs in the Best Actress category, but the producers knew her excellent performance didn’t stand a chance. So they finagled a rule and got her here. Jennifer Jason Leigh’s performance was on of the best things about The Hateful Eight. Rooney Mara in Carol (who also deserves to be in the Best Actress category) and Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs easily showed why they’re worthy of the nomination. Rachel McAdams is a weird singling out in the brilliant ensemble cast that was Spotlight.
Who Should Win: I don’t know, really; Vikander, Mara, Leigh, and Winslet were all wonderful.
Who Will Win: I think the studios wrangled Vikander a win in a lesser category.
Best Director: There were so many well-directed films this year; the top five are tight. Notwithstanding that people believe Ryan Coogler (Creed) should be here, and that I feel Todd Haynes (Carol) should, I’m not sure who I’d knock off the list. The Big Short was a solid exercise in editing by Adam McKay (and it won this year’s Producers’ Guild). Room was Lemmy Abrahamson’s brilliant example of guiding actors to give pitch-perfect performances. A part of me would love George Miller to win for Mad Max Fury Road, but my favorite film this year was Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight.
Who Should Win: Totally, my opinion, based on my love: McCarthy for Spotlight.
Who Will Win: After his win at the Director’s Guild, Alejandro G. Iñárritu is going to pull off two in a row with last year’s Birdman and this year’s The Revenant.
Best Picture: In past years, if there was any contest to be had in this category, it was between two films. This year, there are several possibilities. Spotlight won the Screen Actors’ Award – the largest block of Oscar voters. The Big Short won Producers’ Guild – Oscar’s second largest block of voters. The Revenant won the Golden Globe and Directors’ Guild, but Mad Max won at the box office. Room is tense, emotional, and small. The Martian, Bridge of Spies, and Brooklyn are also excellent films, but they haven’t won anything yet.
Who Should Win: I still love Spotlight.
Who Will Win: As is typical, The Revenant wins the Directors’ prize; it’ll win here, too.
Now it’s your turn! Comment below with your Oscar picks in the following categories:
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Director
Best Picture
Deadline for your predictions is 8 p.m. EST Feb. 28, half an hour before this year’s broadcast begins. The reader with the most correct picks will win a pair of tickets to Naked Boys Singing at Parliament House, for any performance during the show’s final two weekends, March 4 – 6 or March 11 – 13.
If there’s a tie, we’ll draw a winner at random.
Good luck!
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