We’re in our second year of voting for a whopping 10 Best Picture nominees. This gimmick is already failing to pull in audiences.
“Having 10 Best Picture nominees is going to allow Academy voters to recognize and include some of the fantastic movies that often show up in the other Oscar categories but have been squeezed out of the race for the top prize,” said AMPAS President Sid Ganis in a press conference.
The problem with that argument is that it would also stand to reason that there are more than five Best Actors and five Best Supporting Actresses. In fact, perfectly wonderful performances—like Ryan Gosling’s in Blue Valentine and Julianne Moore’s in The Kids are All Right—do get shut out.
However, there exists an easy excuse. What Ganis should have reminded us was that in the 30s and 40s—when there were far fewer films being made—there were often 10 to 12 nominees. That wouldn’t still explain why there is never more than five in other categories, but at least Ganis could claim historical precedence instead of blatant commercialism.
Still, is that going to stop gays from participating? Are you kidding? On with the show!
Best Actor
James Franco will make a lovely host, completely undistracted by the chances of 127 Hours. Javier Bardem deserves some recognition just for getting through all the grim melodrama of Biutiful. Jesse Eisenberg did a lovely job in The Social Network, but he’s up against two powerhouses.
Who Should Win: I thought Colin Firth should’ve won last year for A Single Man. Jeff Bridges did for Crazy Heart. Jeff should win this year for True Grit, but…
Who Will Win: Colin Firth gets it for a commendable turn in The King’s Speech.
Best Actress
Here are some devastatingly wonderful performances: Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole, Jennifer Lawrence in the chilling Winter’s Bone. Then there is Michelle Williams, who did a good job in Blue Valentine, but—given that costar Gosling didn’t get nominated—I assume she got in on a fluke.
Who Should Win: Some people say Annette Bening should take the statue for her quiet, fierce lesbian mommy in The Kids are All Right. But I loved Portman’s total dedication to crazy in Black Swan.
Who Will Win: Portman
Best Supporting Actor
There is not a single dud in this list; John Hawkes is mesmerizing in Winter’s Bone, Jeremy Renner is thrilling in The Town, Geoffrey Rush is amazing in The King’s Speech, and Mark Ruffalo is quietly stunning in The Kids are All Right.
Who Should Win: I said from the moment I saw The Fighter that this year is Christian Bale’s.
Who Will Win: The Academy agrees with me: Bale.
Best Supporting Actress
This is a great list: Hailee Stenfield in True Grit, Amy Adams and Mellissa Leo in The Fighter, and Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech. Then there’s nut-job grandma Jacki Weaver in the grisly Animal Kingdom, which should only be seen if you have Prozac handy.
Who Should Win: Don’t make me pick in this category: I’d give a three-way tie to Leo, Stenfield and Weaver.
Who Will Win: Melissa Leo
Best Director
Tom Hooper inspires great performances in The King’s Speech, but the technical aspects are dullish—same with David O. Russell and The Fighter. Joel and Ethan Coen balance both technical and technique in True Grit, as does David Fincher in The Social Network.
Who Should Win: But one person got stellar performances and fantastic shots while taking huge risks: Darin Aronovsky for Black Swan.
Who Will Win: The usually more daring Fincher has it for services rendered in The Social Network.
Best Picture
Toy Story 3 is only the third animated film to be nominated in this category. Inception is an audience favorite. 127 Hours is a good film, but it got in under the wire. The King’s Speech and The Fighter are here because of their performances. The five that I think deserve to be here (if there were only five) are The Kids are All Right, Winter’s Bone, True Grit, The Social Network, and Black Swan.
Who Should Win: Black Swan
Who Will Win: The Social Network
